Khosilot Farkhor 1–0 Khatlon: Result & Stats

Khosilot Farkhor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khatlon

S. Azimov 45' (pen)

8/3/2023

Vysshaya Liga · Round 15Stadion Farkhar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor44%

×Draw26%

Khatlon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khosilot FarkhorExpected goals in this matchKhatlon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Khosilot Farkhor

1.44

Khatlon

1.13

Khosilot Farkhor creates 27% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 97 away

1.47

creates per match

0.97

1.28

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor

1.47

Khatlon

0.97

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor

1.28

Khatlon

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

Khatlon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw

70%

Khosilot Farkhor or Khatlon

74%

Draw or Khatlon

56%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

21%

Khatlon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

76%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

42%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

18%

Khatlon 1+ goals

68%

Khatlon 2+ goals

31%

Khatlon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

60%

Khatlon (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Khatlon away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.40 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.47 + Khatlon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Khatlon attack 0.97 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

44%

level

26%

Khatlon scores more

30%

Khosilot Farkhor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. AzimovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff