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Khatlon vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
S. Yavorsky 70'
E. Mwanengo 45+4'
X. Uzokov 30'
S. Irgashev 15'
S. Asrorov 90+5'
A. Nozimov 49'
6/22/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khatlon47%
×Draw25%
Khosilot Farkhor28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.56
Khosilot Farkhor
1.13

Khatlon creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.59
Khosilot Farkhor
1.44

allows per match

Khatlon
0.81
Khosilot Farkhor
1.52

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
72%
Khatlon or Khosilot Farkhor
75%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
53%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
24%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
79%
Khatlon 2+ goals
46%
Khatlon 3+ goals
21%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
68%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
31%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
63%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.81 · 32 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.59 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.44 + Khatlon defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khatlon scores more
47%
level
25%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
28%

Khatlon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Irgashev
30'
X. Uzokov
45+4'
E. Mwanengo
49'
A. Nozimov
51'
70'
S. Yavorsky
90+5'
S. Asrorov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Khosilot Farkhor

Khatlon beat Khosilot Farkhor 4-2 in Vysshaya Liga on June 22, 2024.

Goals: S. Irgashev (15'), X. Uzokov (30'), E. Mwanengo (45+4'), A. Nozimov (49'), S. Yavorsky (70'), S. Asrorov (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.