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Khosilot Farkhor vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2020

Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
Unknown 41', 22'
Unknown 35'
6/15/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 10Stadion Farkhar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor48%
×Draw25%
Istaravshan27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khosilot Farkhor
1.60
Istaravshan
1.15

Khosilot Farkhor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 75 away

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.47
Istaravshan
1.01

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.28
Istaravshan
1.73

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw
73%
Khosilot Farkhor or Istaravshan
75%
Draw or Istaravshan
52%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
25%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
80%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
47%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
22%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
68%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
32%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
64%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.73 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.47 + Istaravshan defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Istaravshan attack 1.01 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more
48%
level
25%
Istaravshan scores more
27%

Khosilot Farkhor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
35'
41'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Khosilot Farkhor 3–1 Istaravshan

Khosilot Farkhor beat Istaravshan 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on June 15, 2024.

Goals: ? (22', 35', 41').

The match was played at Stadion Farkhar in Parkhar.