Khoromkhon 0–4 Tuv buganuud: Result & Stats

Khoromkhon

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Tuv buganuud

5/6/2023

Premier League · Round 19Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Khoromkhon23%

×Draw17%

Tuv buganuud60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhoromkhonExpected goals in this matchTuv buganuud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

3.17

Khoromkhon

1.98

Tuv buganuud

3.17

Tuv buganuud creates 60% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 23 away

1.87

creates per match

3.04

3.30

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Khoromkhon

1.87

Tuv buganuud

3.04

allows per match

Khoromkhon

3.30

Tuv buganuud

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khoromkhon+0.00on par

Tuv buganuud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khoromkhon ↓

Tuv buganuud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Khoromkhon or draw

40%

Khoromkhon or Tuv buganuud

83%

Draw or Tuv buganuud

77%

Winning margin

Khoromkhon wins by 2+

11%

Tuv buganuud wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Khoromkhon 1+ goals

86%

Khoromkhon 2+ goals

59%

Khoromkhon 3+ goals

31%

Tuv buganuud 1+ goals

96%

Tuv buganuud 2+ goals

82%

Tuv buganuud 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Khoromkhon (draw refunded)

28%

Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khoromkhon at home — creates 1.87, concedes 3.30 · 61 matches

Tuv buganuud away — creates 3.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khoromkhon attack 1.87 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tuv buganuud attack 3.04 + Khoromkhon defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Khoromkhon scores more

23%

level

17%

Tuv buganuud scores more

60%

Tuv buganuud at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tuv buganuud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff