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Khoromkhon vs Deren — Premier League 2020

Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deren
Deren
4/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khoromkhon18%
×Draw16%
Deren66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khoromkhon
1.52
Deren
2.98

Deren creates 96% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 80 away

creates per match

Khoromkhon
1.87
Deren
2.66

allows per match

Khoromkhon
3.30
Deren
1.16

finishing

Khoromkhon+0.00on par
Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khoromkhon ↓

Deren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Khoromkhon or draw
34%
Khoromkhon or Deren
84%
Draw or Deren
82%

Winning margin

Khoromkhon wins by 2+
7%
Deren wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Khoromkhon 1+ goals
78%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
45%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
20%
Deren 1+ goals
95%
Deren 2+ goals
79%
Deren 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
21%
Deren (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khoromkhon at home — creates 1.87, concedes 3.30 · 61 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khoromkhon attack 1.87 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deren attack 2.66 + Khoromkhon defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Khoromkhon scores more
18%
level
16%
Deren scores more
66%

Deren at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khoromkhon 0–2 Deren

Deren beat Khoromkhon 2-0 in Premier League on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.