Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khoromkhon vs Bayanzürkh Sporting — Premier League 2020

Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bayanzürkh Sporting
Bayanzürkh Sporting
8/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Khoromkhon33%
×Draw18%
Bayanzürkh Sporting48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khoromkhon
2.33
Bayanzürkh Sporting
2.79

Bayanzürkh Sporting creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 28 away

creates per match

Khoromkhon
1.87
Bayanzürkh Sporting
2.29

allows per match

Khoromkhon
3.30
Bayanzürkh Sporting
2.79

finishing

Khoromkhon+0.00on par
Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khoromkhon ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Khoromkhon or draw
52%
Khoromkhon or Bayanzürkh Sporting
82%
Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting
67%

Winning margin

Khoromkhon wins by 2+
18%
Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Khoromkhon 1+ goals
90%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
67%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
41%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals
94%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals
76%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
41%
Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khoromkhon at home — creates 1.87, concedes 3.30 · 61 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khoromkhon attack 1.87 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.33

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Khoromkhon defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khoromkhon scores more
33%
level
18%
Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more
48%

Bayanzürkh Sporting at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bayanzürkh Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khoromkhon vs Bayanzürkh Sporting

Khoromkhon beat Bayanzürkh Sporting 2-0 in Premier League on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.