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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Vista Turbine — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
1 – 0
Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
10/17/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh49%
×Draw31%
Vista Turbine20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.19
Vista Turbine
0.64

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 86% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Vista Turbine
0.47

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.80
Vista Turbine
1.18

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Vista Turbine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
80%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Vista Turbine
69%
Draw or Vista Turbine
51%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
22%
Vista Turbine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
70%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
12%
Vista Turbine 1+ goals
47%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
14%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
71%
Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
49%
level
31%
Vista Turbine scores more
20%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1–0 Vista Turbine

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Vista Turbine 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.