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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
10/27/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh48%
×Draw30%
Shahre Raz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.23
Shahre Raz
0.74

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 66% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
78%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Shahre Raz
70%
Draw or Shahre Raz
52%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
22%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
71%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
35%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
13%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
52%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
17%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
68%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
48%
level
30%
Shahre Raz scores more
22%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 0–1 Shahre Raz

Shahre Raz beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.