Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2–1 Shahrdari Tabriz

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

FT

2 – 1

Shahrdari Tabriz

1/19/2020

Azadegan League · Round 20Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh68%

×Draw21%

Shahrdari Tabriz12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooshe Talaee SavehExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Tabriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.64

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.92

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.64

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 200% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

0.47

0.80

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.20

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.47

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.80

Shahrdari Tabriz

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw

88%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Shahrdari Tabriz

79%

Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz

32%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

42%

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

85%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

57%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

30%

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

47%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

14%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

85%

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.47 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

68%

level

21%

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

12%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff