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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Omid Vahdat — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
1 – 0
Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
9/28/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh89%
×Draw9%
Omid Vahdat3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
3.10
Omid Vahdat
0.41

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 656% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 3 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Omid Vahdat
0.00

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Omid Vahdat
5.00

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Omid Vahdat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Omid Vahdat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
97%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Omid Vahdat
91%
Draw or Omid Vahdat
11%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
72%
Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
95%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
81%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
58%
Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
34%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
6%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
97%
Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Omid Vahdat away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Omid Vahdat defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
89%
level
9%
Omid Vahdat scores more
3%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Omid Vahdat

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Omid Vahdat 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.