Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1–0 Navad Urmia

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

FT

1 – 0

Navad Urmia

K. Dehghani 78'

1/4/2021

Azadegan League · Round 8Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh50%

×Draw31%

Navad Urmia19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooshe Talaee SavehExpected goals in this matchNavad Urmia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.59

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.16

Navad Urmia

0.59

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 97% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 47 away

1.20

creates per match

0.38

0.80

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.20

Navad Urmia

0.38

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.80

Navad Urmia

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Navad Urmia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw

81%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Navad Urmia

69%

Draw or Navad Urmia

50%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

22%

Navad Urmia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

69%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

32%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

11%

Navad Urmia 1+ goals

45%

Navad Urmia 2+ goals

12%

Navad Urmia 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

73%

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.11 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Navad Urmia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

50%

level

31%

Navad Urmia scores more

19%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'

K. Dehghani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff