Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1–1 Kheybar Khorramabad

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kheybar Khorramabad

3/30/2022

Azadegan League · Round 23Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh36%

×Draw32%

Kheybar Khorramabad33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooshe Talaee SavehExpected goals in this matchKheybar Khorramabad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.94

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.99

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

1.20

creates per match

1.04

0.83

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.20

Kheybar Khorramabad

1.04

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.83

Kheybar Khorramabad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw

67%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Kheybar Khorramabad

68%

Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad

64%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

13%

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

63%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

26%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

8%

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals

61%

Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals

24%

Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

52%

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

36%

level

32%

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more

33%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff