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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
3/11/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh37%
×Draw31%
Fajr Sepasi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.03
Fajr Sepasi
0.93

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 98 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
68%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Fajr Sepasi
69%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
63%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
14%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
64%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
28%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
9%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
61%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
24%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
54%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
37%
level
31%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
32%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.