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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
1 – 0
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
2/25/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Shohada Sari Stadium (Sari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh35%
×Draw35%
Mes Kerman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.84
Mes Kerman
0.76

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 116 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
70%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or Mes Kerman
65%
Draw or Mes Kerman
65%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
12%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
57%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
21%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
5%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
53%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
54%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
35%
level
35%
Mes Kerman scores more
30%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooneh Be Khooneh 1–0 Mes Kerman

Khooneh Be Khooneh beat Mes Kerman 1-0 in Azadegan League on February 25, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Sari Stadium (Sari).