Khooneh Be Khooneh 0–3 Malavan: Result & Stats

Khooneh Be Khooneh

FT

0 – 3

Malavan

8/14/2018

Azadegan League · Round 1Shohada Sari Stadium (Sari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh42%

×Draw33%

Malavan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooneh Be KhoonehExpected goals in this matchMalavan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.74

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.04

Malavan

0.74

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.00

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.00

Malavan

0.76

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.73

Malavan

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Malavan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw

74%

Khooneh Be Khooneh or Malavan

67%

Draw or Malavan

58%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

17%

Malavan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

65%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

28%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

9%

Malavan 1+ goals

52%

Malavan 2+ goals

17%

Malavan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

62%

Malavan (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Malavan attack 0.76 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

42%

level

33%

Malavan scores more

26%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff