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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
1 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
3/9/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh38%
×Draw35%
Aluminium Arak26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.89
Aluminium Arak
0.68

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
Aluminium Arak
0.63

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
Aluminium Arak
0.78

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
74%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or Aluminium Arak
65%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
62%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
14%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
59%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
22%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
6%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
49%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
15%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
59%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Aluminium Arak attack 0.63 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
38%
level
35%
Aluminium Arak scores more
26%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Aluminium Arak

Khooneh Be Khooneh and Aluminium Arak drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium (Babol).