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Khonkaen vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
3/11/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 27Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Khonkaen41%
×Draw26%
Rayong FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
1.45
Rayong FC
1.27

Khonkaen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 84 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
1.45
Rayong FC
1.45

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.09
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
67%
Khonkaen or Rayong FC
74%
Draw or Rayong FC
59%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
20%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
77%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
42%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
18%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
72%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
36%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
56%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khonkaen scores more
41%
level
26%
Rayong FC scores more
33%

Khonkaen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Khonkaen 0–0 Rayong FC

Khonkaen and Rayong FC drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.