Khonkaen 0–2 Muang Loei United: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

0 – 2

Muang Loei United

3/27/2019

FA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Khonkaen46%

×Draw22%

Muang Loei United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchMuang Loei United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.56

Khonkaen

1.92

Muang Loei United

1.56

Khonkaen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

2.00

1.13

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Khonkaen

2.50

Muang Loei United

2.00

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.13

Muang Loei United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Muang Loei United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Muang Loei United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

68%

Khonkaen or Muang Loei United

78%

Draw or Muang Loei United

54%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

26%

Muang Loei United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

85%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

57%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

30%

Muang Loei United 1+ goals

79%

Muang Loei United 2+ goals

46%

Muang Loei United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

59%

Muang Loei United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Muang Loei United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 2.50 + Muang Loei United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Muang Loei United attack 2.00 + Khonkaen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khonkaen scores more

46%

level

22%

Muang Loei United scores more

32%

Khonkaen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff