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Khonkaen vs Krabi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
1 – 0
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
2/16/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Khonkaen56%
×Draw23%
Krabi FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
1.83
Krabi FC
1.02

Khonkaen creates 79% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 48 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
1.45
Krabi FC
0.94

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.09
Krabi FC
2.21

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
79%
Khonkaen or Krabi FC
77%
Draw or Krabi FC
44%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
32%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
84%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
54%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
28%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
64%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
27%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
73%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.83

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Khonkaen scores more
56%
level
23%
Krabi FC scores more
21%

Khonkaen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Khonkaen 1–0 Krabi FC

Khonkaen beat Krabi FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 16, 2018.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen).