Khonkaen 0–1 Customs United: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

0 – 1

Customs United

3/31/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 34Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Khonkaen46%

×Draw25%

Customs United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchCustoms United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

Khonkaen

1.54

Customs United

1.14

Khonkaen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 87 away

1.23

creates per match

1.06

1.21

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.23

Customs United

1.06

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.21

Customs United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Customs United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

72%

Khonkaen or Customs United

75%

Draw or Customs United

54%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

23%

Customs United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

79%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

45%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

20%

Customs United 1+ goals

68%

Customs United 2+ goals

32%

Customs United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

62%

Customs United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 52 matches

Customs United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.23 + Customs United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Customs United attack 1.06 + Khonkaen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khonkaen scores more

46%

level

25%

Customs United scores more

28%

Khonkaen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff