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Khonkaen vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
9/19/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Khonkaen43%
×Draw26%
Chiangmai FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
1.42
Chiangmai FC
1.15

Khonkaen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 82 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
1.45
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.09
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
69%
Khonkaen or Chiangmai FC
74%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
57%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
21%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
76%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
41%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
17%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
68%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
32%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
59%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khonkaen scores more
43%
level
26%
Chiangmai FC scores more
31%

Khonkaen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khonkaen vs Chiangmai FC

Khonkaen and Chiangmai FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.