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Khonkaen vs Cha Choeng Sao — FA Cup 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaenadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
1/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Khonkaen71%
×Draw16%
Cha Choeng Sao13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
2.67
Cha Choeng Sao
1.06

Khonkaen creates 152% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
2.50
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.13
Cha Choeng Sao
2.83

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
87%
Khonkaen or Cha Choeng Sao
84%
Draw or Cha Choeng Sao
29%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
50%
Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
93%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
74%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
49%
Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
65%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
29%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
85%
Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 2.50 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.67

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.00 + Khonkaen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Khonkaen scores more
71%
level
16%
Cha Choeng Sao scores more
13%

Khonkaen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Khonkaen 3–1 Cha Choeng Sao

Khonkaen beat Cha Choeng Sao 3-1 in FA Cup on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.