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Khonkaen vs Bankhai United — FA Cup 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
4 – 1
Bankhai United
Bankhai United
7/25/2018FA CupFA Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Khonkaen60%
×Draw18%
Bankhai United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
2.63
Bankhai United
1.56

Khonkaen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
2.50
Bankhai United
2.00

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.13
Bankhai United
2.75

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Bankhai United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Bankhai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
78%
Khonkaen or Bankhai United
82%
Draw or Bankhai United
40%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
39%
Bankhai United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
93%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
73%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
48%
Bankhai United 1+ goals
79%
Bankhai United 2+ goals
46%
Bankhai United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
73%
Bankhai United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Bankhai United away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 2.50 + Bankhai United defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Bankhai United attack 2.00 + Khonkaen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Khonkaen scores more
60%
level
18%
Bankhai United scores more
22%

Khonkaen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khonkaen vs Bankhai United

Khonkaen beat Bankhai United 4-1 in FA Cup on July 25, 2018.