Khonkaen 4–1 Ang Thong FC: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

4 – 1

Ang Thong FC

7/1/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 19Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khonkaen53%

×Draw24%

Ang Thong FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchAng Thong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

Khonkaen

1.69

Ang Thong FC

1.01

Khonkaen creates 67% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 14 away

1.45

creates per match

0.93

1.09

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.45

Ang Thong FC

0.93

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.09

Ang Thong FC

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Ang Thong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

77%

Khonkaen or Ang Thong FC

76%

Draw or Ang Thong FC

47%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

29%

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

82%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

50%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

24%

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals

64%

Ang Thong FC 2+ goals

27%

Ang Thong FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

70%

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Ang Thong FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ang Thong FC attack 0.93 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Khonkaen scores more

53%

level

24%

Ang Thong FC scores more

23%

Khonkaen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff