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Khonkaen vs Air Force Central FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
3 – 1
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
5/26/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khonkaen52%
×Draw24%
Air Force Central FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
1.67
Air Force Central FC
1.04

Khonkaen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
1.45
Air Force Central FC
1.00

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.09
Air Force Central FC
1.88

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
76%
Khonkaen or Air Force Central FC
76%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
48%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
28%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
81%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
50%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
23%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
65%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
28%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
69%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khonkaen scores more
52%
level
24%
Air Force Central FC scores more
24%

Khonkaen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khonkaen vs Air Force Central FC

Khonkaen beat Air Force Central FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen).