Khonkaen Mordindang 0–1 Udon United: Result & Stats

Khonkaen Mordindang

0 – 1

Udon United

10/13/2021

League Cup · 1st Qualifying RoundKhonkaen University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khonkaen Mordindang34%

×Draw20%

Udon United46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khonkaen MordindangExpected goals in this matchUdon United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.33

Khonkaen Mordindang

2.00

Udon United

2.33

Udon United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

2.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Khonkaen Mordindang

3.00

Udon United

2.00

allows per match

Khonkaen Mordindang

2.67

Udon United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen Mordindang+0.00on par

Udon United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen Mordindang ↓

Udon United →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Khonkaen Mordindang or draw

54%

Khonkaen Mordindang or Udon United

80%

Draw or Udon United

66%

Winning margin

Khonkaen Mordindang wins by 2+

18%

Udon United wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Khonkaen Mordindang 1+ goals

86%

Khonkaen Mordindang 2+ goals

59%

Khonkaen Mordindang 3+ goals

32%

Udon United 1+ goals

90%

Udon United 2+ goals

67%

Udon United 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen Mordindang (draw refunded)

43%

Udon United (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen Mordindang at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Udon United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen Mordindang attack 3.00 + Udon United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Udon United attack 2.00 + Khonkaen Mordindang defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khonkaen Mordindang scores more

34%

level

20%

Udon United scores more

46%

Udon United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Udon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff