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Khonkaen Mordindang vs Surin Sugar — League Cup 2021

Khonkaen Mordindang
Khonkaen Mordindang
FT
8 – 2
Surin Sugar
Surin Sugar
9/9/2023League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundKhonkaen University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khonkaen Mordindang72%
×Draw13%
Surin Sugar14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen Mordindang
3.75
Surin Sugar
1.71

Khonkaen Mordindang creates 119% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Khonkaen Mordindang
3.00
Surin Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Khonkaen Mordindang
2.67
Surin Sugar
4.50

finishing

Khonkaen Mordindang+0.00on par
Surin Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen Mordindang ↓

Surin Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Khonkaen Mordindang or draw
86%
Khonkaen Mordindang or Surin Sugar
87%
Draw or Surin Sugar
28%

Winning margin

Khonkaen Mordindang wins by 2+
55%
Surin Sugar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khonkaen Mordindang 1+ goals
97%
Khonkaen Mordindang 2+ goals
88%
Khonkaen Mordindang 3+ goals
70%
Surin Sugar 1+ goals
82%
Surin Sugar 2+ goals
51%
Surin Sugar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen Mordindang (draw refunded)
84%
Surin Sugar (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen Mordindang at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Surin Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen Mordindang attack 3.00 + Surin Sugar defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Surin Sugar attack 0.75 + Khonkaen Mordindang defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Khonkaen Mordindang scores more
72%
level
13%
Surin Sugar scores more
14%

Khonkaen Mordindang at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Khonkaen Mordindang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khonkaen Mordindang vs Surin Sugar

Khonkaen Mordindang beat Surin Sugar 8-2 in League Cup on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Khonkaen University Stadium in Khon Kaen.