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Khon Kaen United vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
FT
2 – 0
Navy FC
Navy FC
10/10/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Khon Kaen United61%
×Draw21%
Navy FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khon Kaen United
2.06
Navy FC
1.01

Khon Kaen United creates 104% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khon Kaen United
2.06
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Khon Kaen United
1.00
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khon Kaen United ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Khon Kaen United or draw
82%
Khon Kaen United or Navy FC
79%
Draw or Navy FC
39%

Winning margin

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
38%
Navy FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
87%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
61%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
34%
Navy FC 1+ goals
64%
Navy FC 2+ goals
27%
Navy FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
77%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khon Kaen United at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khon Kaen United attack 2.06 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.06

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Khon Kaen United scores more
61%
level
21%
Navy FC scores more
18%

Khon Kaen United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Khon Kaen United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khon Kaen United vs Navy FC

Khon Kaen United beat Navy FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.