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Khimki vs Tom Tomsk — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
7/22/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki50%
×Draw26%
Tom Tomsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.52
Tom Tomsk
0.96

Khimki creates 58% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 74 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Tom Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Tom Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Tom Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
76%
Khimki or Tom Tomsk
74%
Draw or Tom Tomsk
50%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
26%
Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
78%
Khimki 2+ goals
45%
Khimki 3+ goals
20%
Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
62%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
25%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
68%
Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khimki scores more
50%
level
26%
Tom Tomsk scores more
24%

Khimki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Khimki 0–1 Tom Tomsk

Tom Tomsk beat Khimki 1-0 in First League on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Arena Khimki (Khimki).