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Khimki vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
8/12/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki51%
×Draw24%
Spartak Moscow 225%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.66
Spartak Moscow 2
1.09

Khimki creates 52% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 73 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
75%
Khimki or Spartak Moscow 2
76%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
49%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
27%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
81%
Khimki 2+ goals
49%
Khimki 3+ goals
23%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
66%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
67%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khimki scores more
51%
level
24%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
25%

Khimki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki vs Spartak Moscow 2

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Khimki 3-1 in First League on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Arena Khimki (Khimki).