Khimki 3–2 Rubin: Result & Stats | Premier League

Khimki

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rubin

A. Rudenko 90+2', 67'

A. Zabolotny 9'

M. Daku 58', 12'

5/17/2025

Premier League · Round 29Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki40%

×Draw27%

Rubin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchRubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Khimki

1.31

Rubin

1.16

Khimki creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 105 away

1.23

creates per match

1.02

1.30

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Rubin

1.02

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Rubin

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Rubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

67%

Khimki or Rubin

73%

Draw or Rubin

60%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

18%

Rubin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

73%

Khimki 2+ goals

38%

Khimki 3+ goals

14%

Rubin 1+ goals

69%

Rubin 2+ goals

32%

Rubin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

55%

Rubin (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rubin attack 1.02 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimki scores more

40%

level

27%

Rubin scores more

33%

Khimki at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

V. Vada

Rubin · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

A. Zabolotny↳ L. Vera

12'

M. Daku↳ V. Vada

36'

O. Ivanov← U. Iwu

41'

Dmitriy KabutovPenalty confirmed

43'

Mirlind DakuMissed penalty

58'

M. Daku↳ E. Teslenko

61'

Álex Corredera← B. Magomedov

61'

E. Fariña← I. Berkovskiy

61'

A. Rudenko← Z. Bakaev

62'

Edgardo Fariña

66'

Mirlind DakuGoal cancelled

67'

A. Rudenko

73'

M. Apshatsev← B. Jočić

73'

R. Bezrukov← D. Kabutov

75'

Edgardo FariñaCard upgrade

76'

Edgardo Fariña

79'

Orinho← D. Stepanov

81'

Oleksandr Filin

88'

R. Mirzov← A. Zabolotny

90+2'

A. Rudenko↳ Álex Corredera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KhimkiRubin

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots15

8Corners2

18Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots15

7On Target7

5Off Target6

0Blocked2

10Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

358Total Passes293

265Accurate Passes212

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls17

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

3Offsides5

Match Recap: Khimki vs Rubin

Khimki beat Rubin 3-2 in Premier League on May 17, 2025.

Goals: A. Zabolotny (9'), M. Daku (12', 58'), A. Rudenko (67', 90+2').

Khimki controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.

Khimki vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Khimki vs Rubin