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Khimki vs Rubin — Cup 2019

Khimki
Khimki
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
9/25/2019CupCup · 16th FinalsArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Khimki55%
×Draw23%
Rubin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.86
Rubin
1.11

Khimki creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.85
Rubin
0.60

allows per match

Khimki
1.62
Rubin
1.87

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
77%
Khimki or Rubin
77%
Draw or Rubin
45%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
31%
Rubin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
84%
Khimki 2+ goals
55%
Khimki 3+ goals
28%
Rubin 1+ goals
67%
Rubin 2+ goals
30%
Rubin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
71%
Rubin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Rubin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.85 + Rubin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rubin attack 0.60 + Khimki defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Khimki scores more
55%
level
23%
Rubin scores more
23%

Khimki at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khimki 3 – 0 Rubin

Khimki beat Rubin 3-0 in Cup on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.