Khimki 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats | Cup

Khimki

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

A. Rudenko 39'

V. Aleksandrov 65'

11/22/2022

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Khimki49%

×Draw23%

Nizhny Novgorod28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.37

Khimki

1.87

Nizhny Novgorod

1.37

Khimki creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.85

creates per match

1.11

1.62

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Khimki

1.85

Nizhny Novgorod

1.11

allows per match

Khimki

1.62

Nizhny Novgorod

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

72%

Khimki or Nizhny Novgorod

77%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

51%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

27%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

85%

Khimki 2+ goals

56%

Khimki 3+ goals

29%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

75%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

40%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

63%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.85 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.87

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.11 + Khimki defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khimki scores more

49%

level

23%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

28%

Khimki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Aleksandr Rudenko

39'

N. Kalinskiy← M. Maiga

39'

A. Rudenko

46'

Milson← D. Rybchinskiy

63'

D. Stotskiy← N. Kakkoev

65'

Viktor Aleksandrov

65'

V. Aleksandrov

70'

B. Idowu← K. Bozhenov

70'

B. Magomedov← D. Glushakov

76'

I. Dibirov← I. Sadygov

80'

Bryan Idowu

80'

K. Shiltsov← V. Krotov

80'

M. Yansane← T. Suleymanov

86'

Artur Cherny

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KhimkiNizhny

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots18

3Corners8

16Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots18

2On Target6

6Off Target7

2Blocked5

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2