Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimki vs Nizhny Novgorod — Premier League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
8/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki47%
×Draw26%
Nizhny Novgorod27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.46
Nizhny Novgorod
1.04

Khimki creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 78 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.23
Nizhny Novgorod
0.78

allows per match

Khimki
1.30
Nizhny Novgorod
1.68

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
73%
Khimki or Nizhny Novgorod
74%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
53%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
23%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
77%
Khimki 2+ goals
43%
Khimki 3+ goals
18%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
65%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
28%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
63%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khimki scores more
47%
level
26%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
27%

Khimki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki vs Nizhny Novgorod

Khimki and Nizhny Novgorod drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 27, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.