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Khimki vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
CANC
22:00
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
5/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Khimki41%
×Draw28%
Nizhny Novgorod31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.30
Nizhny Novgorod
1.09

Khimki creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 53 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.72
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Khimki
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
69%
Khimki or Nizhny Novgorod
72%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
59%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
19%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
73%
Khimki 2+ goals
37%
Khimki 3+ goals
14%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
66%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
30%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
57%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Khimki scores more
41%
level
28%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
31%

Khimki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Khimki host Nizhny Novgorod

May 5, 2020: Khimki take on Nizhny Novgorod in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.