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Khimki vs Kazanka — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Khimki
Khimki
FT
4 – 0
Kazanka
Kazanka
7/11/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UTC Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khimki67%
×Draw17%
Kazanka16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
2.63
Kazanka
1.23

Khimki creates 114% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.94
Kazanka
1.33

allows per match

Khimki
1.13
Kazanka
3.33

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Kazanka+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Kazanka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
84%
Khimki or Kazanka
83%
Draw or Kazanka
33%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
45%
Kazanka wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
93%
Khimki 2+ goals
73%
Khimki 3+ goals
48%
Kazanka 1+ goals
71%
Kazanka 2+ goals
35%
Kazanka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
81%
Kazanka (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Kazanka away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.94 + Kazanka defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.63

Kazanka attack 1.33 + Khimki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Khimki scores more
67%
level
17%
Kazanka scores more
16%

Khimki at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Khimki 4–0 Kazanka

Khimki beat Kazanka 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2020.

The match was played at UTC Kratovo in Moskva.