Khimki 0–1 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moscow

F. Smolov 90+6' (pen)

5/6/2023

Premier League · Round 26Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki36%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moscow38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.35

Khimki

1.30

Dinamo Moscow

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

1.23

creates per match

1.41

1.30

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

62%

Khimki or Dinamo Moscow

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

64%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

16%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

73%

Khimki 2+ goals

37%

Khimki 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

48%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khimki scores more

36%

level

26%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

38%

Dinamo Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Smolov

Dinamo Moscow · F

7.7

Match Events

13'

Mory Gbane

24'

Lev Skvortsov

29'

Yaroslav GladyshevGoal cancelled

35'

S. Sazonov← R. Fernández

46'

A. Rudenko← A. Guliev

47'

Mory Gbane

47'

Mory Gbane

49'

S. Melentijević← R. Mirzov

59'

K. Tyukavin← M. Normann

75'

V. Khubulov← A. Dolgov

75'

D. Laxalt← D. Skopintsev

75'

A. Kutitskiy← Y. Gladyshev

75'

D. Makarov← L. Gagnidze

90+6'

Petar Golubović

90+4'

Denis Makarov

90+5'

Konstantin TyukavinPenalty confirmed

90+9'

Marcos Guilherme← V. Khubulov

90+6'

F. SmolovPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KhimkiDinamo

Overview

30%Possession70%

5Total Shots13

2Corners6

17Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target5

1Off Target6

2Blocked2

2Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

235Total Passes536

129Accurate Passes421

55%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4