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Khimki vs Dinamo Makhachkala — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
R. Netfullin 86'
10/28/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Khimki46%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Makhachkala24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.25
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

Khimki creates 52% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.68
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.68

allows per match

Khimki
0.96
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
76%
Khimki or Dinamo Makhachkala
71%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
54%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
71%
Khimki 2+ goals
36%
Khimki 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
20%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.68 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Khimki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimki scores more
46%
level
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
24%

Khimki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
R. Magomedov← Z. Yusupov
61'
Léo Andrade← O. Isaenko
73'
R. Abduragimov← M. Kostyukov
79'
T. Sundukov← S. Abdullahi
81'
I. Sadygov← A. Koryan
83'
Soslan Kagermazov
86'
R. Netfullin
90+4'
Igor Obukhov
90+4'
Serder Serderov
90+1'
K. Panchenko← A. Rudenko
90+1'
L. Skvortsov← B. Magomedov

Statistics

KhimkiDinamo
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Khimki 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Khimki beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 in First League on October 28, 2023.

Goals: R. Netfullin (86').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.