Khimki 4–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats | Cup

Khimki

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Avangard Kursk

8/21/2019

Cup · 4th RoundArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khimki66%

×Draw19%

Avangard Kursk15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.98

Khimki

2.26

Avangard Kursk

0.98

Khimki creates 131% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

1.85

creates per match

0.33

1.62

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Khimki

1.85

Avangard Kursk

0.33

allows per match

Khimki

1.62

Avangard Kursk

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

85%

Khimki or Avangard Kursk

81%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

34%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

43%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

89%

Khimki 2+ goals

66%

Khimki 3+ goals

39%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

62%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

26%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

81%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.85 + Avangard Kursk defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.26

Avangard Kursk attack 0.33 + Khimki defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Khimki scores more

66%

level

19%

Avangard Kursk scores more

15%

Khimki at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff