Khimki U20 2–2 UOR №5 U20: Result & Stats

Khimki U20

FT

2 – 2

UOR №5 U20

7/23/2021

Youth Championship · Round 1Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Khimki U2049%

×Draw21%

UOR №5 U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimki U20Expected goals in this matchUOR №5 U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.60

Khimki U20

2.10

UOR №5 U20

1.60

Khimki U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 65 away

1.57

creates per match

1.40

1.81

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Khimki U20

1.57

UOR №5 U20

1.40

allows per match

Khimki U20

1.81

UOR №5 U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki U20+0.00on par

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki U20 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Khimki U20 or draw

70%

Khimki U20 or UOR №5 U20

79%

Draw or UOR №5 U20

51%

Winning margin

Khimki U20 wins by 2+

29%

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Khimki U20 1+ goals

88%

Khimki U20 2+ goals

62%

Khimki U20 3+ goals

35%

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

80%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

47%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Khimki U20 (draw refunded)

62%

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki U20 attack 1.57 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.10

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Khimki U20 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khimki U20 scores more

49%

level

21%

UOR №5 U20 scores more

30%

Khimki U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khimki U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff