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Khimki II vs Zenit Penza — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
8/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Khimki II48%
×Draw25%
Zenit Penza27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.56
Zenit Penza
1.11

Khimki II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Zenit Penza
0.96

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Zenit Penza
1.66

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Zenit Penza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
73%
Khimki II or Zenit Penza
75%
Draw or Zenit Penza
52%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
24%
Zenit Penza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
79%
Khimki II 2+ goals
46%
Khimki II 3+ goals
21%
Zenit Penza 1+ goals
67%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
30%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
64%
Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Zenit Penza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zenit Penza attack 0.96 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khimki II scores more
48%
level
25%
Zenit Penza scores more
27%

Khimki II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki II vs Zenit Penza

Khimki II and Zenit Penza drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.