Khimki II 1–0 SKA Khabarovsk II: Result & Stats

Khimki II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SKA Khabarovsk II

4/21/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Khimki II49%

×Draw24%

SKA Khabarovsk II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimki IIExpected goals in this matchSKA Khabarovsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Khimki II

1.71

SKA Khabarovsk II

1.19

Khimki II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

1.46

creates per match

1.13

1.26

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Khimki II

1.46

SKA Khabarovsk II

1.13

allows per match

Khimki II

1.26

SKA Khabarovsk II

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par

SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

SKA Khabarovsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw

73%

Khimki II or SKA Khabarovsk II

76%

Draw or SKA Khabarovsk II

51%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+

27%

SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals

82%

Khimki II 2+ goals

51%

Khimki II 3+ goals

24%

SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals

70%

SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals

33%

SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)

65%

SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

SKA Khabarovsk II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.13 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khimki II scores more

49%

level

24%

SKA Khabarovsk II scores more

27%

Khimki II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff