Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimki II vs Saturn Ramenskoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
10/19/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Khimki II43%
×Draw25%
Saturn Ramenskoye32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.52
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.29

Khimki II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.32

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.57

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
68%
Khimki II or Saturn Ramenskoye
75%
Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye
57%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
21%
Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
78%
Khimki II 2+ goals
45%
Khimki II 3+ goals
20%
Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
72%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
37%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
57%
Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimki II scores more
43%
level
25%
Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
32%

Khimki II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki II vs Saturn Ramenskoye

Khimki II and Saturn Ramenskoye drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 3 on October 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.