Khimki II 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk: Result & Stats

Khimki II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metallurg Lipetsk

V. Babaev 30'

4/23/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Khimki II38%

×Draw26%

Metallurg Lipetsk36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimki IIExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.35

Khimki II

1.40

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 53 away

1.46

creates per match

1.45

1.26

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Khimki II

1.46

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.45

allows per match

Khimki II

1.26

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw

64%

Khimki II or Metallurg Lipetsk

74%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

62%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+

18%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals

75%

Khimki II 2+ goals

41%

Khimki II 3+ goals

17%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

74%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

39%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)

52%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.45 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khimki II scores more

38%

level

26%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

36%

Khimki II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

V. Babaev

46'

D. Malykhin← G. Zaseev

66'

B. Chinarev← R. Polkovnikov

70'

N. Kashaev← N. Ivannikov

78'

A. Kharin← A. Ovchinnikov

79'

M. Kostyaev← A. Murnin

88'

R. Akhvlediani← V. Babaev

Khimki

Metallurg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Yushchenko

46'▲D. Malykhin←▼G. Zaseev

66'▲B. Chinarev←▼R. Polkovnikov

79'▲M. Kostyaev←▼A. Murnin

Khimki II substitutes

MalykhinChinarevKostyaev

Manager: S. Mashnin

70'▲N. Kashaev←▼N. Ivannikov

78'▲A. Kharin←▼A. Ovchinnikov

88'▲R. Akhvlediani←▼V. Babaev

Metallurg Lipetsk substitutes

KashaevKharinAkhvlediani