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Khimki II vs Krasnyy-SGAFKST — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
10/19/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khimki II48%
×Draw23%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.83
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.36

Khimki II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.47

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
2.20

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Krasnyy-SGAFKST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
71%
Khimki II or Krasnyy-SGAFKST
77%
Draw or Krasnyy-SGAFKST
52%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
27%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
84%
Khimki II 2+ goals
54%
Khimki II 3+ goals
28%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals
74%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals
39%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
63%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.47 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Khimki II scores more
48%
level
23%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more
29%

Khimki II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Khimki II 1–2 Krasnyy-SGAFKST

Krasnyy-SGAFKST beat Khimki II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.