Khimki II 2–3 Kosmos Dolgoprudny: Result & Stats

Khimki II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

9/26/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Khimki II35%

×Draw25%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimki IIExpected goals in this matchKosmos Dolgoprudny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.46

Khimki II

1.34

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 39 away

1.46

creates per match

1.67

1.26

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Khimki II

1.46

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.67

allows per match

Khimki II

1.26

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par

Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw

60%

Khimki II or Kosmos Dolgoprudny

75%

Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny

65%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+

15%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals

74%

Khimki II 2+ goals

39%

Khimki II 3+ goals

15%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

77%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

43%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)

46%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimki II scores more

35%

level

25%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more

40%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff