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Khimki II vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
11/12/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Khimki II31%
×Draw27%
FK Sokol Saratov42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.09
FK Sokol Saratov
1.32

FK Sokol Saratov creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 48 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
58%
Khimki II or FK Sokol Saratov
73%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
69%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
12%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
66%
Khimki II 2+ goals
30%
Khimki II 3+ goals
10%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
73%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
38%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
42%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khimki II scores more
31%
level
27%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
42%

FK Sokol Saratov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki II vs FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Khimki II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.