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Khimki II vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
6/4/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 11Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Khimki II36%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Vladivostok38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.31
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 55 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.45

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.16

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
62%
Khimki II or Dinamo Vladivostok
74%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
64%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
73%
Khimki II 2+ goals
38%
Khimki II 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
49%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khimki II scores more
36%
level
26%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
38%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Khimki II 5–1 Dinamo Vladivostok

Khimki II beat Dinamo Vladivostok 5-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.