Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Vladivostok vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
10/8/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok52%
×Draw24%
Khimki II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.72
Khimki II
1.10

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 56% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
76%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Khimki II
76%
Draw or Khimki II
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
28%
Khimki II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
51%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
25%
Khimki II 1+ goals
67%
Khimki II 2+ goals
30%
Khimki II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
68%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
52%
level
24%
Khimki II scores more
24%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Dinamo Vladivostok 4–2 Khimki II

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Khimki II 4-2 in Second League - Group 3 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.