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Khimki II vs Balashikha — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Balashikha
Balashikha
9/17/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khimki II61%
×Draw22%
Balashikha17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.85
Balashikha
0.86

Khimki II creates 115% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Balashikha
0.47

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Balashikha
2.24

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Balashikha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
83%
Khimki II or Balashikha
78%
Draw or Balashikha
39%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
35%
Balashikha wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
84%
Khimki II 2+ goals
55%
Khimki II 3+ goals
28%
Balashikha 1+ goals
58%
Balashikha 2+ goals
21%
Balashikha 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
78%
Balashikha (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Balashikha attack 0.47 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Khimki II scores more
61%
level
22%
Balashikha scores more
17%

Khimki II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki II vs Balashikha

Khimki II beat Balashikha 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.